报告人： 姜锐 教授
姜锐，北京交通大学交通运输学院教授。主要研究方向是交通流和相关复杂系统。主持国家自然科学基金优青项目、重点项目、国家重点研发计划课题等 10 余项科研项目。在《Transportation Research Part B》、《TransportationScience》、《ISTTT》、《Transportation Research Part C》等著名国际学术期刊和会议上发表SCI论文170余篇， SCI他引3000余次。获教育部自然科学一等奖和安徽省自然科学二等奖各1次。
Thispaper studies a bottleneck model in which the capacity of the bottleneck isconstant within a day but changes stochastically from day-to-day between adesigned value (good condition) and a degraded one (bad condition). The studyrelates the travel cost variability due to stochastic capacity with commuters’departure time choice behaviors. We postulate that commuters acquire thevariability of travel cost based on past experiences and factor suchvariability into their departure time choice consideration by minimizing theirtravel cost budget, defined as a weighted average of mean travel cost andstandard deviation of travel cost. It is shown that there exist seven possibleequilibrium patterns, although one of them is implausible in practice. Allpossible equilibrium patterns and their corresponding parameter ranges areanalytically derived. A preliminary "round-to-round" study shows thatdeparture pattern changes periodically in the remaining parameter range, andthus no equilibrium can be reached. Dependence of travel cost and the durationof peak hours on the commuters' risk preference has also been derived in eachequilibrium pattern. Finally, numerical studies have been conducted toillustrate the properties.